Mapping of aridity and its connections with climate classes and climate desertification in future scenarios – Brazilian semi-arid region

Brazil has the most populous and biodiverse semi-arid region in world (Brazilian Semi-arid - SAB). However, recent decades, clusters of desertification have emerged, a problem that could intensify from climate change. The objective this study was to elaborate on spatial distribution areas susceptible climatic SAB, considering future change scenarios. Understanding dynamic is essential for SAB's agri-environmental management. Aridity indices proposition classes current condition (1970-2000) scenarios (2061-2080) Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC) were prepared, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Optimistic (SSP 126) pessimists 585). results indicate by end century, SAB should become significantly drier (Kruskal-Wallis = p-value < 0.05), with an intensification aridity index SSP 585. In scenarios, expansion more arid over humid climates reach 56,500 km² (10%) 126 140,400 (24%) Consequently, high (622,400 706,300 km²) very are expected expand. 4,400 21,700 susceptibility respectively SSPs Confirming these projections would imply socioeconomic ecological risks SAB.